The congressional midterm primary season is upon us and in New Jersey, seemingly every Democrat who can spell Congress is getting into a race.

“You're looking at just an outrageous number of Democratic candidates running for office this year,” Democratic strategist Simon Persico said.

A total of 58 House and Senate candidates filed to run in this June’s primary. More than two-thirds of those candidates are Democrats. In NJ-12, the seat currently held by retiring Democrat Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, a whopping 13 Democrats filed to run against each other in the primary.

Political watchdogs say this is partly due to Democrats seeing this year’s midterms as a potential ‘blue wave.’ There’s some evidence to back up this prediction.

The party that wins the White House tends to fare poorly in the midterm elections two years later – and Republican President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have cratered lately.

Democrats have also pulled off some surprising upsets recently. In state senate races in deep red parts of places like Texas, Mississippi and Trump’s home turf in Florida, Dems have flipped state senate seats this election cycle.

On the Republican side, the lack of enthusiasm is clear in the numbers. Of the 53 candidates that filed in NJ House races, just 15 are Republicans.

In the 8th District, for example, whoever wins the primary between incumbent Democrat Rob Menendez and challenger Mussab Ali could run unopposed in November since no Republicans filed to run in the primary.

Political experts say there’s another big reason lots of Democratic candidates are getting in during what the party sees as a favorable cycle: The state recently got rid of a ballot format that gave candidates endorsed by a county’s Democratic committee — a.k.a. the county line — a more prominent position on the ballot, giving more candidates hope of success at the polls.

“ Since the line went away, many more candidates are willing to run,” said Prof. Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “They don't view themselves as having to take on their entire party in order to run. It's not as formidable an obstacle.”

RIP to the 'Line’

In the past, a key to success as a candidate was securing the endorsement of the local county committee parties in each district. The names of endorsed candidates were listed above everyone else’s on the primary ballot.

In 2024, then-Congressman Andy Kim filed a lawsuit against 19 New Jersey county clerks in federal court challenging the primary ballot system. Kim’s suit said the ballot design was unconstitutional and presented data showing that candidates sometimes obtained a double-digit advantage from getting the county endorsement.

In March 2024, U.S. District Court Judge Zahid Quraishi ruled in favor of Kim and barred the line’s use in that year’s Democratic primary. The ruling was later upheld by the federal appeals court. The following year, the NJ legislature passed a ballot design law that effectively outlawed the county line structure.

The policy change is already affecting policies, political experts agree.

In the hotly watched Democratic primary in the special election in New Jersey’s 11th District, 11 candidates got on the primary ballot with hopes of winning the seat vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat.

During the bruising primary, three well-established, well-funded Dems — Brendan Gill, Tom Malinowski and Tahesha Way — all won county committee endorsements that in the past would have given them those preferential spots on the top of the ballot.

But it was a candidate with no county committee endorsements, progressive upstart Analilia Mejia, who emerged victorious in the race.

”It is a direct relationship to the county line going away,” said Matt Hale, political professor at Seton Hall.

About that 13-person primary

For political watchdogs, two crowded primary races stand out as particularly competitive.

The first is in NJ-7, the seat currently held by Republican Tom Kean, Jr.

”Kean's seat is clearly one of the top targets of both parties this year in the entire nation,” Rasmussen said. “It has been competitive in the last several cycles, and both Democrats and Republicans are gunning for this seat.”

In 2024, Kean won reelection pretty comfortably by about five points. But just one year later, Sherrill won the district by a point in her governor's race. In the wake of those results, eight Democrats threw their hats in the ring, and four — Rebecca Bennett, Brian Varela, Tina Shah and Michael Roth — remain in the race heading into the final months of the primary.

The other must-watch primary race is in NJ-12 in central Jersey, where 13 candidates are vying for a relatively safe Democratic seat.

Four candidates — Verlina Reynolds-Jackson, Brad Cohen, Adrian Mapp and Chanel Robinson — received county party endorsements. However, Rasmussen notes that could lead to them splitting the establishment votes.

“What that allows to happen potentially is for a renegade, choosing a different lane … to have their own outside lane,” he said. He added that with so many names on the ballot, the candidates don't need as many votes to win, and GOTV operations might prove decisive.

“Folks that have the ground game and they knock on the doors – they might have more of an opening than we think,” Hale said.