Ask An Epidemiologist: Is It Safe To Socialize In The Open Air?

This past Saturday we saw temperatures hit the high 70s, which proved to be a siren call to some New Yorkers, beckoning them to come out and play. By Sunday evening, footage of unmasked revelers on the Upper East Side was circulating, showing folks sitting on curbs and drinking with friends. Some were even dining in, despite that not being legal right now. And this wasn't an isolated incident: on Sunday, photographer Scott Lynch captured similar scenes on Division, Orchard, and Ludlow streets around the Lower East Side. "Without a plan, people are just going to wing it," Lynch noted.

And so here we are, living in a world of half measures, mixed messages, and divided citizenship. Some are being guided by their whims, others by the advice of officials, experts and common sense.

For those taking the advice of health experts very seriously, they are staying at home for the most part. But we also have those who, bafflingly, are just out there L-I-V-I-N like we aren't residing in the epicenter of a global pandemic. And we have everyone in between, who are trying to abide by the social distancing guidelines but also are venturing out into the city a little more each day as the pandemic goes on.

Since this is the world we're going to be stuck in for a while, let's try to understand it a little better. Epidemiologists Stephen Morse and Barun Mathema looked at the above photos from Sunday, and shared their thoughts with Gothamist. Some of their guidance can be found below.

"WE CAN'T SAY WHO MIGHT BE ONE OF THE UNLUCKY ONES"

"The pictures show an interesting mix," Morse observed. "Some social distancing, some wearing masks and avoiding looking straight at each other (South Korea recommended this so you’re not in someone’s direct line of breath), some throwing caution to the wind. [But] until we know more, I think it’s best to err on the side of caution. We can’t say with certainty about any individual, who just might be one of the unlucky ones."

As for Morse, he's playing it safe: "Some of these people may be willing to take the risk.  For my part, I’ll continue all the same precautions and, while wearing my facemask, give them a wide berth (at least 6 feet) if I see them."

"WE ARE VERY MUCH STILL IN THIS PANDEMIC"

Having been at this for months now, there may be a false sense of security among those who have not been directly affected by COVID-19 yet. Mathema reminds us that "despite decreasing rates of hospitalization (and mortality) in the NYC area, we are very much still in this pandemic. Therefore, taking steps to prevent spread is vitally important. This includes preventing acquisition of infection and preventing dissemination of the virus to others unknowingly. At the moment, minimizing social activities or actions that lend itself to coming into close contact with others is really quite important."

Morse pointed out that "a number of the people in the photos are showing what their risk tolerance is.  If some of the groups that are not showing social distancing are sharing an apartment, then they may not be adding very much to their own risk... [but] it would be truly irresponsible behavior if they’re likely to come in contact with senior citizens or others at higher risk of severe disease."

"THE SAFEST WAY TO SOCIALIZE IS WITH PHYSICAL SEPARATION"

Abstinence and isolation is the only way you can remain risk-free, but if you decide to go socialize, you'll need to remember the key ingredients to remaining safer. This includes keeping a distance, keeping it short (duration-wise), keeping it clean (wash your hands, don't touch your face, etc), and wearing a mask.

"If one does need to get out for some fresh air (I think we can all understand this) it must be done responsibly to minimize spread," Mathema said. Many are doing this by going for solitary walks, or walks with those in their household. Others, however, are meeting up with friends, as we've seen more and more in parks over recent weeks, and in the above photos from this weekend.

"The safest way to socialize is with physical separation," Mathema instructed. "Even as societies slowly start opening up, we will still need to maintain a certain amount of distancing [at least 6 feet] — this is really necessary when interacting with others that are not part of your own household. As is handwashing. This would be true even in the open air (surely transmission risk is lower outdoors but still a risk as there is some evidence on the aerosol production with infectious particles). In addition, masks (even homemade ones) are also needed to minimize transmission."

He added that "socializing without practicing these principles is not at all advised or beneficial for the individual, families or community."

"A SENSE OF COMMON PURPOSE"

Morse acknowledged that we're not going to get everyone on the same page, which is a point of frustration for those trying to do the right thing and stay at home. But for anyone listening, here's his advice: "This is a good time to practice community spirit and a sense of common purpose, [and] shared sacrifice at last.  We do believe open air is generally much safer than indoors, because of air movement which hopefully dilutes the virus in the air, and duration counts, but (in the words of the old cliché) better safe than sorry."

CAN I HANG WITH A SELECT GROUP OF FRIENDS, A PANDEMIC POD?

Let's say you have a tight knit small group of friends, and you've all been self-isolating in your homes — are you safe to hang out together in, say, someone's backyard? Or at a park?

"This is a tough question that I actually get often," Mathema said. "There will need to be some guidance on this as we move forward. On one hand you will need to evaluate each situation and decide and weigh the risks involved. This can get awkward quickly. Are you sure your friends are as strict as you (or vice versa)? The risk here is that you could be putting yourself or a loved one at risk. Moreover, some individuals will be at higher risk due to underlying comorbidity or age, and should not participate, or others may be at higher risk of already harboring the virus (asympto or presympto) due to occupation or previous interactions."

INSTEAD OF SHAMING, TRY EDUCATING

"Surveys show that, despite New York's hardboiled image, it’s actually considered one of the most polite cities in America," Morse said, suggesting: "Rather than threatening the noncompliant, let’s try to educate."

WEAR A MASK

Wearing a mask is not only simple, it's a sign of respect because it can help keep those around you safe. And recent studies have shown that wearing one can significantly reduce transmission.

"The China CDC always felt strongly that facemasks were essential," Morse said. "The CDC reversed its position on masks in April" and finally recommended Americans wear them when outside. "We’re all still learning with experience," Morse noted, "on facemasks, I was always in the middle myself, but now agree with using face coverings, as long as you don’t get a sense of false security and relax other precautions.  In retrospect, we should have done it much sooner."