The driver who fatally struck a cyclist on Staten Island last week remains at large, and with each passing day the odds of catching him or her diminish. In this excellent article, the Staten Island Advance reports that an analysis of 15 fatal hit-and-runs on Staten Island from 2005 to 2011 shows that in all 10 of the solved cases, police either had the driver in custody or had a good idea of the driver's identity within 48 hours. In the five cases where the driver wasn't found within 48 hours, no arrests have been made.

So it's been 11 days, and investigators are still on the lookout for the driver a dark-colored SUV, possibly a Dodge Durango, that killed Staten Island nursing student Ronald Tillman as he biked home from Wagner College around 9 p.m. The investigation does have one important piece of evidence going for it: the SUV's front grill, and detectives remain optimistic they can find the suspect. But if history is any guide, the odds are not in their favor.

Law enforcement officials say drivers typically leave the scene because they're drunk or on drugs, or because there's a warrant out for their arrest, or they're not supposed to be driving for some reason. And defense attorneys say it can sometimes be better for their clients if they leave the scene and turn themselves in after sobering up. While leaving the scene of a fatal accident is a class D felony, if a driver is intoxicated, there's a chance of much more serious charges. "I would never advise anybody to leave the scene of a fatal crash," defense attorney Mario Gallucci tells the Advance. However! "As a defense attorney, you love it when they leave the scene, because it helps your case."