New Jersey Republican state Sen. Jon Bramnick is worried about his friend Rep. Tom Kean, Jr.’s reelection chances.

“No doubt about that,” Bramnick told Gothamist.

Although the state’s 7th Congressional District typically favors Republicans, Democrats have fared well in recent elections. That, combined with President Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the state and what some have called Kean’s reclusive approach to campaigning, has left the two-term incumbent locked in one of the country’s most contested midterm races, and some local Republicans have started to voice concerns that their party may lose the seat come November.

Kean is running against first-time Democratic candidate Rebecca Bennett. The contest could help determine which party will control Congress in the final two years of Trump’s term. A recent StimSight Research poll placed Bennett up by five points against Kean.

The two candidates are scheduled to meet in their one scheduled debate on Sunday night.

Bramnick knows Kean well. He represents the same part of the Garden State where Kean sits as a member of Congress. The two served alongside each other in the state Legislature for 18 years while Kean was a member of the Assembly.

Bramnick said he’s spoken to Kean a couple of times in the past few weeks. He said Kean remains “very positive” and believes his campaign’s internal polling shows voters will send him back to Washington D.C. next year.

The GOP holds an advantage. There are 20,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats in the district. Typically, that would give Bramnick confidence.

But recent election results may forecast a shift in the political weather. Democrat Gov. Mikie Sherrill won the district by 2 points in the 2025 gubernatorial race. And New Jerseyan's opinion of Trump has undergone a dramatic shift. The president’s unfavorability rating amongst Republicans in the district has doubled from 15% to 30% in the time since Bramnick ran for governor in the 2024 Republican primary.

“That's an indication that's no way a safe district,” he said.

The StimSight Research poll also showed 39% of voters viewed Kean as “very unfavorable.”

“It's going to be really tough for him to overcome that," said professor Dan Cassino, executive director of polling for Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Kean’s campaign declined to comment directly on the worries of fellow Republicans over his reelection chances. His spokesperson, Harrison Neely, instead sent a written statement critical of Bennett.

“Rebecca Bennett made a fortune as a healthcare executive by putting profits ahead of patients, and she admitted she stopped going to church because she couldn’t stand being around people who voted differently than she did. That’s not the kind of representation the people of this district deserve,” Neely said. “Tom Kean, Jr. has spent his career as an independent problem solver who puts his constituents first and works with anyone to get results. We’re confident voters will look at that contrast and send him back to Congress.”

But Republican state Sen. Declan O’Scanlon acknowledged that Kean is in a difficult position this year.

“Tom's a good guy, and he's got a lot of loyalty from constituents up there. So we are hopeful that Tom will prevail. But it's a tough race, there's no denying that,” said O’Scanlon, who serves as his party’s budget officer in the legislature.

According to O’Scanlon, one of Kean’s challenges is the strength of his opponent. Bennett has a background in the healthcare industry and, like Sherill, is a former Navy helicopter pilot. .

“ The candidate he's up against, that formula has worked for Democrats in the past,” he said.

Bennett ran a decidedly more moderate Democratic campaign than her competitors in the primary. She’s also proven that she can be competitive with Kean as a fundraiser. Bennett’s raised over $4 million dollars so far, with $1.6 million coming in during the last quarter. By comparison, the latest figures show Kean has raised just under $5 million.

A quiet campaign style

Despite voters’ concerns over rising prices due, at least in part, to Trump’s tariff policy and the war in Iran, O’Scanlon believes that Kean and other Republicans still have a superior message on what polls shows is one of New Jerseyan’s top concerns: affordability.

"[Democrats] talk a good game, but much of what they're proposing will not lead to a more affordable country,” O’Scanlon said.

In Congress, Kean has been involved in several pieces of affordability legislation. He helped advocate for restoring and expanding the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap to benefit New Jersey homeowners in the Republicans’ tax and spending bill signed by Trump last July. Recently, Kean introduced the MOVE Act, which would allow homeowners to transfer their existing mortgage rate to a new property.

But some political observers say it may be difficult for some voters to know what Kean’s affordability message is.

Kean has had a subdued presence on the campaign trail. Since he returned to Congress after a 116 day absence due to mental health challenges, Kean has not given any extensive interviews to media, though he claimed in August that he does the most local press engagements of any member of New Jersey’s Congressional delegation.

“ If you're an incumbent at this point, this is normally when you'd be talking about all the stuff you've done. You'd be out shaking hands and kissing babies, but that's not Tom Kean. He's not in the least bit interested in doing that,” Cassino said.

At the same time, he’s faced criticism over issues like his profiting from stock trading and his lack of engagement in responding to local Republicans’ pleas for help in blocking the Trump administration from transforming a warehouse into an ICE detention center in his district. Bennett has also attacked him over his support for Trump’s Iran war.

“Now that it’s election season, Tom Kean Jr. is trying to run away from his record of trading over $3 million in stocks since first taking office, voting to kick New Jerseyans off of their healthcare, and jacking up utility costs,” said Bennett spokesperson Carly Jones. “Voters aren’t buying it. Instead, they are ready to elect Rebecca Bennett, who put her life on the line for our country in the U.S. Navy and isn’t afraid to take on both parties to lower costs and end corruption in Washington.”

A more positive outlook

Other Garden State Republicans are more confident about Kean’s chances in November.

“I don’t think he’s in trouble,” said Tracy DiFrancesco, the Somerset County GOP chair who spoke with Gothamist the day after she joined Kean at a fundraiser for a Republican commissioner candidate in Somerset County.

“I think he’s feeling very positive,” she said, though she added that the outcome of the Congressional race will be hard to predict.

“ Elections in New Jersey are absolutely crazy, so you never know,” she said.

State Sen. Joe Pennacchio, the Deputy Republican Leader, was also confident Kean would prevail.

“[Kean] happens to be a nice man that does a good job for his constituents,” he told Gothamist. “ I think the voters know that, and they're going to reward him with another term. I really feel that way.”

Pennacchio and DiFrancesco were both unconcerned about recent polling, as well as the moderate Bennett siphoning off support from independents and other voters in the middle of the two parties.

“ I don't think I've seen a Democrat that doesn't call themselves a moderate,” Pennachio said. “They'll say one thing, but they'll always vote in lockstep with the most progressive element of their party.”

For Bramnick, who has been one of the state’s staunchest Republican critics of Trump, if Kean is going to win he has to turn on the president.

“ My argument is simple,” he said. “You have to say, ‘I'm not going to do whatever Trump says. I'm going to do what my constituents want and what's best for New Jersey.’”