Ask An Epidemiologist: Planes, Trains, Or Shelter In Place — How Should We Handle The Holidays?

The holiday season in New York City officially kicks off every November with some Running of the Bulls level of chaos at Penn Station, where the hellmouth opens its widest on Thanksgiving Eve to swallow New Yorkers whole and spit them out somewhere in the suburbs. It may not be an enjoyable tradition, but it's our tradition.

This year, however, the tradition will look different — the pandemic is ongoing, and we'll likely see record low numbers around holiday travel at our transit hubs. But you may be asking yourself in the lead-up: should I try to get myself to that Thanksgiving dinner table? This question now comes with a slew of safety concerns, so we asked Dr. Stephen Morse, an epidemiology professor at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, for his thoughts.

If In Doubt, Don’t Go

"It probably goes without saying, but, first and foremost: If in doubt, don’t go," Morse told Gothamist. "Especially if you’re in a vulnerable group, or will be seeing someone in a vulnerable group." Instead, he suggests you postpone the trip. This is particularly important "if you’re going to or coming from an area with many cases." Hotspots and holidays do not mix.

As with any other day during a pandemic, Morse says it's best to avoid unnecessary travel. However, he adds, "with the right precautions we think risks can be greatly reduced to make travel relatively safe." This includes following the CDC guidelines of wearing your mask, and leaving it on for your entire trip.  "Our own behavior may have the greatest effect," he says.

And here's a golden rule to hold onto: "If worry about infection is likely to make the visit more like a final exam than a family gathering, play it safe and stay home this time."

PLANES

Tempted by those low fares? Well, for long trips, flying probably is your best option, Morse says, "especially if you have to break your trip and stay at a hotel or make many stops along the way" if you drove instead. Additionally, he points out that "planes have enhanced their ventilation systems."

"Although we still feel a little queasy about flying, our usual precautions seem to be working (and many planes are nowhere near full, for distancing)," Morse says, but adds: "Don’t forget to keep up those usual precautions – keep mask on, and try to keep distancing — outside the plane, when people may bunch up waiting to board, deplane, or going through security.  These masks and everything else seem boring but they also seem to be helping a lot."

TRAINS

For New Yorkers, most travel begins with the subway, and Morse says things are looking fairly good underground. Our subway system "also has increased ventilation," he says. And now the MTA "is looking at ways to beef up the ventilation systems on LIRR and MetroNorth," but that will not be completed in time for the holidays. So again, it will come down to you and your fellow passengers wearing masks. "If you can find a fairly empty car, to maintain distance, that’s a plus," Morse adds.

"Although still limited, the data on transportation suggests that the risk is probably less than we had originally thought, with the usual precautions (especially masks, distancing whenever possible).  There are preliminary data that, when contact tracing has been done, apparently no cases or clusters were traced back to transit system use (for the riders; unfortunately, it’s different for the transit workers, who have greater exposure and fewer options).  Somewhat reassuring, but many places don’t do much contact tracing, so I’d take it with a grain of salt until we have better data.  But those are promising signs."

& AUTOMOBILES

Morse recommends that for short trips, you take a car, "especially if you have good ventilation (if you can keep the windows open, for example)." You can even take off your mask "if you know everyone in the car and they’re all uninfected," then put your "masks back on whenever you go outside your car (or your 'cocoon')." 

THE DINNER TABLE

Let's start with this evergreen pandemic reminder from Morse: "We’re talking about reducing risk, so that your chances of getting infected are very small with the proper measures.  Zero risk is not feasible in the real world."

With that in mind, if you do find yourself sitting around a table this holiday season, "It is a good idea if everyone can get a virus test (and get their results back, hopefully negative) before the gathering," Morse says. This should be easier with rapid testing available in some places now but it "may not always be feasible." If you can pull it off, however, this would allow everyone to feel secure with masks off at the dinner table. "If everyone at the table really is negative for virus (preferably by a nucleic acid test), the precautions can be less rigorous within your group."

But "what the family does at the dinner table probably depends on the family," Morse notes, adding, "I think most would opt for placing everyone with sufficient distancing, or having dinner outside with some distancing."

If no one has been tested and you'll be in contact "with others outside your group," you'll want to mask up and distance as much as possible... and again, consider an open-air feast around a bonfire if you can swing it, rather than gathering indoors.

Morse also adds, "As usual, I consider complacency a great danger." So remember, being in a familiar holiday atmosphere with your family could lull you into letting your guard down, and while the following piece of advice is not from Morse, we stand by it: maybe write on your arm with a Sharpie: "WE ARE STILL IN A PANDEMIC" to make sure you don't lose your edge.

WHAT'S THE CDC SAYING?

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Robert Redfield said this month that “the increasing threat right now” was the virus spreading through small household gatherings, pointing to the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday and noting it would be "important to stress the vigilance of these continued mitigation steps in the household setting."

The CDC also issued guidance for handling holiday celebrations in the coming months, which kind of reads like a common sense guide at this point.